Daily Market Commentary

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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • Canadian headline inflation for September moved higher
    Friday, October 20, 2017 - 08:59 EDT

    Canadian headline inflation for September moved higher to 1.6% y/y from the previous month although a tad below expectations of 1.7%.  Headline CPI accelerated this month due to higher gasoline prices as the hurricanes in the U.S. affected price…

  • The Fed released the Biege Book for the September to early October period
    Thursday, October 19, 2017 - 08:49 EDT

    The Fed released the Beige Book for the September to early October period that indicated that the pace of growth was split between modest and moderate, with growth impacted by regions affected by Hurricane Harvey and Irma including sectors such…

  • OSFI released the finalized version of the B-20 rules yesterday
    Wednesday, October 18, 2017 - 08:30 EDT

    OSFI released the finalized version of the B-20 rules yesterday afternoon that will affect mortgage lending starting on January 1, 2018.  Mortgage applications will need to qualify at the higher of the contractual mortgage rate plus 200bps or th…

  • The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey yesterday
    Tuesday, October 17, 2017 - 09:37 EDT

    The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey yesterday that included data from August to September.  Overall, the expectation for future sales have pulled back, which are now at the lowest levels of the year.  Those who were surv…

  • BOC Governor Poloz spoke on Saturday
    Monday, October 16, 2017 - 08:59 EDT

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke over the weekend about “The Economy and Monetary Policy” at the G30 International Banking Seminar.  In regards to inflation, she indicated that her best guess is the soft inflation readings would not persist and…

  • U.S. retail sales rebounded in September
    Friday, October 13, 2017 - 09:57 EDT

    U.S. retail sales rebounded in September with an increase of 1.6% m/m after falling -0.1% in the prior month.  The boost in the month was the result of the hurricanes in Texas and Florida that saw motor vehicles replaced following the storms.&nb…

  • The FOMC minutes were released yesterday
    Thursday, October 12, 2017 - 08:37 EDT

    The FOMC minutes were released yesterday, as Fed members discussed why inflation continues to remain soft.  Members either viewed inflation as being transitory, which has been the language continually repeated in their statements, although many…

  • There is an expectation this week for additional ABS issuance
    Wednesday, October 11, 2017 - 08:37 EDT

    Tensions in Catalonia have calmed somewhat following the Catalan President’s address that he would suspend any current actions towards independence following last week’s independence vote.  He indicated that he would engage in dialogue with…

  • Spanish equity markets are down over 1% this morning
    Tuesday, October 10, 2017 - 08:22 EDT

    Spanish equity markets are down over 1% this morning after the Spanish government announced that their police forces are ready to arrest Catalan President Puigdemont if he announces the region as an independent state.  Spain viewed last week’s…

  • Canadian employment remains strong
    Friday, October 6, 2017 - 09:06 EDT

    Canadian employment remains strong adding 10k jobs in September, although slightly below consensus of +12k.  The Canadian economy has continued to add jobs every month since December of last year and is averaging just over 25k jobs created per m…

  • Minutes from the September ECB meeting were released this morning
    Thursday, October 5, 2017 - 09:16 EDT

    Minutes from the September ECB meeting were released this morning, which indicated that the reassessment to remove stimulus must be gradual and cautious.  In addition, the central bank must be mindful of market expectations on future policy.&nbs…

  • BOC deputy's governor remarks yesterday essentially removed the potential of another rate hike this year
    Wednesday, October 4, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Leduc remarks yesterday essentially removed the potential of another rate hike this year.  He stated that the Canadian economy has performed a lot better than expected over the past five quarters; however the econo…

  • The Canadian new issue market was active again yesterday
    Tuesday, October 3, 2017 - 08:30 EDT

    There were two Fed officals speaking yesterday with Dallas Fed President Kaplan noting that the hurricanes affecting Texas and Florida will create weakness in Q3 growth.  However, he still expects 2017 growth to measure around 2.25% or a little…

  • Yields of Spanish government bonds are wider this morning
    Monday, October 2, 2017 - 09:56 EDT

    Yields of Spanish government bonds are wider this morning following a referendum vote that saw approximately 90% in favour of Catalonia separating from Spain to become an independent republic.  The details of the vote are still unclear as it is…

  • Canadian GDP for July came in flat
    Friday, September 29, 2017 - 09:48 EDT

    Canadian GDP for July came in flat with year over year GDP increasing at 3.8%.  In July, oil and gas output declined by 1.8% while wholesale output increased by 2%.  Housing continued to be a slight drag on GDP following Ontario’s new rul…

  • U.S. Q2 GDP was revised marginally higher
    Thursday, September 28, 2017 - 09:04 EDT

    The final reading for Q2 U.S. GDP was revised marginally higher from 3.0% to 3.1%.  Personal consumption remained mostly unchanged at 3.3% and continued to be the primary driver of second quarter growth in the U.S.  BOC Governor Poloz spoke…

  • Janet Yellen spoke yesterday on inflation and monetary policy
    Wednesday, September 27, 2017 - 10:38 EDT

    Janet Yellen spoke yesterday on inflation and monetary policy, which held an overall hawkish tone.  She warned markets not to underestimate the potential of additional rate hikes this year and that the Fed should also be wary of moving too gradu…

  • ECB President Mario Draghi spoke yesterday
    Tuesday, September 26, 2017 - 09:51 EDT

    ECB President Mario Draghi spoke yesterday, indicating that the Euro area recovery has broadly accelerated, although the pass-through of monetary stimulus still needs to translate into stronger inflation.  As a result, the ECB still expects to r…

  • The third round of NAFTA negotiations began over the weekend
    Monday, September 25, 2017 - 08:53 EDT

    Over the weekend, German Chancellor Merkel won her fourth term.  However, Merkel’s CDU party lost seats from the last election, only securing 33% of votes.  As a result, Merkel will be required to form a coalition with other parties in or…

  • Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in July
    Friday, September 22, 2017 - 09:35 EDT

    Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in July. In terms of volume, sales fell 0.2%, however excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.2%. Consumer spending has been persistently solid in the past two years. There appears to be no obvious signs of downside risks…

  • As expected the Fed funds rate remains unchanged at 1%
    Thursday, September 21, 2017 - 09:36 EDT

    As expected, the Fed funds rate remains unchanged at 1% and announced that they will gradually reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet starting in October. FOMC members’ dot plot projections implied one more 25bps hike in 2017, three hikes in 2018…

  • While awaiting today's Fed rate decision global markets are generally calm
    Wednesday, September 20, 2017 - 09:05 EDT

    While awaiting today’s Fed rate decision and press conference, global financial markets are generally calm. With a widespread expectation that the Fed will start balance sheet unwinding in October, government bond yields edged higher globally. …

  • BPC deputy governor, Tim Lane, spoke publicly on global trade yesterday
    Tuesday, September 19, 2017 - 08:37 EDT

    BOC deputy governor Tim Lane spoke publicly on global trade, yesterday. He reiterated that the central bank is closely monitoring how the economy responds to rising borrowing costs and a stronger Canadian dollar. In the speech, he also mentioned how…

  • Investors' attention is turning to the FOMC announcement this Wednesday
    Monday, September 18, 2017 - 09:21 EDT

    Investors’ attention is turning to the FOMC announcement this Wednesday. While the Feb is broadly expected to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at the current level of 1%-1.25%, the majority of the attention will be on whether there will be det…

  • U.S. retail sales for the month of August fell
    Friday, September 15, 2017 - 10:18 EDT

    North Korea launched another missile over Japan after the UN Security Council imposed the strongest sanctions on North Korea on Monday. Markets were a touch softer and viewed the current situation as a continuance of the provocation, instead of furth…

  • U.S. headline inflation increased by 0.4%
    Thursday, September 14, 2017 - 09:36 EDT

    U.S headline inflation increased by 0.4% to 1.9% in August, largely due to 2.8% energy prices increase causing by Hurricane Harvey. Core inflation rose by 0.2% to 1.7% in August, supported by strong service prices. Fed officials are closely monitorin…

  • Yesterday was a very active day in the domestic bond market
    Wednesday, September 13, 2017 - 09:39 EDT

    U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is planning to deliver a speech on her latest Brexit negotiation strategy on September 21st . The European Union and U.K. have agreed to postpone the next round of Brexit negotiation to a date after the speech, which i…

  • The UN Security Council approved new sanctions against North Korea
    Tuesday, September 12, 2017 - 09:02 EDT

    The United Nations Security Council approved new sanctions against North Korea after its most powerful missile and nuclear tests. The sanctions targeted to cut oil imports to 2 million barrels a year, ban textile exports and enhance shipments inspect…

  • The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have move higher
    Monday, September 11, 2017 - 09:10 EDT

    Hurricane Irma hit Florida with less force than expected, and with no other geopolitical news coming out over the weekend, the U.S dollar and U.S Treasury yields moved higher. Safe havens including gold, the yen and Swiss franc fell. In the meantime,…

  • Canada added 22,200 jobs in August
    Friday, September 8, 2017 - 09:23 EDT

    Canada added 22,200 jobs in August, higher than market expectations of a 15,000 gain. Details were weaker than the headline number. Full-time jobs decreased by 88,100, fully offset the 32,700 gain of self-employed positions. The gain in August was ma…

  • There was a flurry of new issuance in the Canadian credit market yesterday
    Wednesday, September 6, 2017 - 08:35 EDT

    Markets are softer this morning, weighting up the risks of; a potential intercontinental ballistic missile launch by North Korea; hurricane Irma moving closer to Florida; and the American debt ceiling approaching.  The risk- off tone was support…

  • Gasoline prices are slightly lower this morning
    Tuesday, September 5, 2017 - 10:48 EDT

    Gasoline prices are slightly lower this morning after increasing by as much as 15% over the past week.  However, Hurricane Irma is currently tracking along the Atlantic coast  and could potentially threaten the gulf coast after being upgrad…

  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls undershot expectations with 156,000 jobs added in August
    Friday, September 1, 2017 - 10:19 EDT

    U.S. nonfarm payrolls undershot expectations with 156,000 jobs added in August, versus consensus of 180,000.  There was also a negative 41,000 revision for the prior two months.  The participation rate of 62.9% was in line with the prior mo…

  • China's manufacturing PMI increased to 51.7 in July
    Thursday, August 31, 2017 - 09:50 EDT

    China’s manufacturing PMI increased to 51.7 in July, higher than the forecast of 51.3.  China’s economy continues to be strong this year as a pickup in exports continues.  The U.S. second estimate for Q2 GDP was revised up to 3%, higher…

  • U.S. ADP employment for August came in at 237k
    Wednesday, August 30, 2017 - 10:08 EDT

    U.S. President, Donald Trump, responded that “all options are on the table” after North Korea fired a missile over Japan on Tuesday.  Markets interpreted it as the situation won’t escalate. Asian stock markets closed higher, followed by Eu…

  • North Korea fired a missile over Japan setting a risk-off tone across markets
    Tuesday, August 29, 2017 - 09:22 EDT

    North Korea fired a missile over Japan setting a risk-off tone across markets. Stocks were weak across Europe and Asia. U.S stock futures also tumbled as safe havens including gold, the Swiss franc and Japanese Yen rallied.  Japan stated that th…

  • Tropical Storm Harvey, and the devasting floods, continue in Texas
    Monday, August 28, 2017 - 09:33 EDT

    Tropical Storm Harvey, and the devastating floods, continues in Texas. Houston, the 4st largest city in America and the biggest in Texas, which is the center of the U.S. energy industry.  Approximately 25% of natural gas production in the Gulf o…

  • U.S. durable goods for July came in at -6.8%
    Friday, August 25, 2017 - 08:59 EDT

    U.S. durable goods for July came in at -6.8% below expectations of -6.0%.  The large drop over the past month was a result on unusually higher aircraft orders in the previous month following the Paris Air show.  However, core capital goods…

  • CIBC was the second of the Canadian banks to report
    Thursday, August 24, 2017 - 08:48 EDT

    Fitch put out a note yesterday indicating that any failure by the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner would result in potentially negative implications.  This follows President Trump’s comments that he would be willing to shut do…

  • Yesterday saw a flurry of new issue activity
    Wednesday, August 23, 2017 - 08:19 EDT

    President Trump continues to drive headlines this week after stating that the NAFTA agreement will likely be terminated while he would also be willing to shut down the government over border wall funding.  In his speech, Trump indicated frustrat…

  • Canadian retail sales for June came in just below expectations
    Tuesday, August 22, 2017 - 08:53 EDT

    Canadian retail sales for June came in just below expectations of 0.2% at +0.1%m/m.  Although still a positive increased for the month of June, May’s strong retail sales number was revised 0.1% lower to 0.5%.  Consumption in Canada contin…

  • The first round of the NAFTA negotiations ended last week
    Monday, August 21, 2017 - 08:59 EDT

    The first round of the NAFTA negotiations between the U.S., Canada and Mexico ended last week with all three countries committed to wrapping up the negotiations quickly.  The U.S. has mid-term elections while Mexico has a national election next…

  • Canadian headline inflation for July came in at expectations at 1.2%
    Friday, August 18, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Canadian headline inflation for July came in at expectations at 1.2%.  CPI ticked higher by 0.2% from the previous month as a result of higher gasoline prices in addition to rising hotel accommodations and restaurant prices.  Electricity de…

  • The FOMC minutes from the July meeting were released yesterday
    Thursday, August 17, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    The FOMC minutes from the July meeting were released yesterday, where the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged.  For the most part, new information was largely absent as Fed officials debated the likelihood that inflation will increase back to t…

  • Second quarter GDP out of Europe continues to be positive
    Wednesday, August 16, 2017 - 09:22 EDT

    Today officially marks the first day of NAFTA negotiations between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico as the U.S. will attempt to reduce the trade deficit against the other two countries.  Second quarter GDP out of Europe continues to be positive, incr…

  • Yesterday, Foreign Affairs minister Chrystia Freeland spoke about Canada’s core objectives in the upcoming NAFTA negotiations...
    Tuesday, August 15, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    Yesterday, Foreign Affairs minister Chrystia Freeland spoke about Canada’s core objectives in the upcoming NAFTA negotiations that begin tomorrow.  She indicated that Canada won’t accept just any deal, with hopes that the three countries can…

  • Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea continued to be in the headlines...
    Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:04 EDT

    Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea continued to be in the headlines on Friday, keeping some volatility in the markets.  The VIX index was just under 10 to start last week, and currently stands at 13 after rising to a high of 16 at the mid…

  • U.S. inflation edged up marginally in July
    Friday, August 11, 2017 - 09:20 EDT

    U.S. inflation edged up marginally in July by 0.1% to 1.7% y/y, although below expectations of 1.8%.  CPI ex food and energy y/y continues to remain stable, similarly to last month at 1.7%.  Inflation continues to remain below the Federal R…

  • The U.S. producer price index fell
    Thursday, August 10, 2017 - 08:54 EDT

    The U.S. producer price index for July fell by 0.1% m/m against expectations of a +0.1% increase.  The unexpected drop in wholesale prices was the first decline in almost a year, potentially indication that inflation will remain benign.  Ex…

  • Canadian housing starts for July increased
    Wednesday, August 9, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Economic data releases are again quieter in North America this morning.  However, Canadian housing starts for July increased from the prior month up 10k to 222.3k and higher than expectations of 205k.  Most of the new housing starts were in…

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