Daily Market Commentary

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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • Canadian CPI continues to be weak, posting an increase of 1.3% in May...
    Friday, June 23, 2017 - 10:02 EDT

    Canadian CPI continues to be weak, posting an increase of 1.3% in May, against expectations of +1.5%.  Gasoline prices fell by 4% in May, although year over year gas prices are still up by 6.8%.  Food inflation was mildly higher at +0.6% fo…

  • Prime Minister May will meet with other European Union leaders today...
    Thursday, June 22, 2017 - 10:55 EDT

    Prime Minister May will meet with other European Union leaders today in Brussels, where she will walk through the principles in her approach towards Brexit.  The details of the plan will be published next Monday and allow the British parliament…

  • Dallas Fed President Kaplan spoke yesterday
    Wednesday, June 21, 2017 - 09:15 EDT

    Dallas Fed President Kaplan spoke yesterday and noted that the muted 10yr Treasury yield suggests expectations of sluggish economic growth.  He was glad that the Fed increased rates last meeting but is willing to be patient moving forward. …

  • Today marks the second day of Brexit
    Tuesday, June 20, 2017 - 08:43 EDT

    Today marks the second day of Brexit with an agreement from both the U.K. and the EU that the agenda would first begin with the exit bill followed by the rights of EU and British citizens living outside their home region.  The Bank of England Go…

  • Brexit negotiations officially begin this morning
    Monday, June 19, 2017 - 08:27 EDT

    Brexit negotiations officially begin this morning in Brussels, a year after the vote for the U.K. to leave the Eurozone.  Although very preliminary, Theresa May will lay out the legislative process with the U.K. parliament in two days’ time, f…

  • Overseas buyers purchased $10.6bil of Canadian securities
    Friday, June 16, 2017 - 09:39 EDT

    Overseas buyers purchased $10.6bil of Canadian securities in April, down from the prior month purchases of $15.1bil.  The breakdown included buying of just under $13bil of bonds, offset by selling of $1.3bil of equities and $1.1bil of money mark…

  • As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25bps yesterday
    Thursday, June 15, 2017 - 08:35 EDT

    As expected, the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by 25bps yesterday, with the target range at 1%-1.25%.  The statement did address that core inflation continues to run below their 2% target, but Yellen dismissed the recent softness in inflation as…

  • 94.8% probability that the Fed will raise rates today
    Wednesday, June 14, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    Bank of Canada Governor Poloz spoke yesterday but did not reiterate deputy governor Wilkins’ comments from the prior day.  However, he did not provide any reason for investors to think differently either.  He indicated there are still two…

  • The Bank of Canada senior deputy Wilkins spoke yesterday
    Tuesday, June 13, 2017 - 08:51 EDT

    The Bank of Canada senior deputy Wilkins spoke yesterday and brought a much more hawkish tone to the bank.  In her speech, she noted that as growth continues to broaden further, the Bank will begin assessing whether the current monetary stimulus…

  • All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week
    Monday, June 12, 2017 - 08:32 EDT

    All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week, as the FOMC will release its policy statement on Wednesday.  The probability of the Fed raising rates this meeting currently stands just below 95%, as several Fed officials over the past mo…

  • Canadian employment surged in May
    Friday, June 9, 2017 - 09:40 EDT

    U.K. Prime Minister May was unable to garner enough seats in yesterday’s election to secure a majority government.  Her Conservative party still holds the largest number of seats at 318, just short of 326 seats required for a house majority.&n…

  • Voters in Britain head to the Polls today
    Thursday, June 8, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    Voters in Britain head to the polls today, after Prime Minister May called a snap election to consolidate power and form a majority government.  The latest poll by Ipsos indicated that the Conservatives would win 44% of the votes, just short of…

  • New supply continues to come to the Canadian corporate credit market
    Wednesday, June 7, 2017 - 09:04 EDT

    Canada and the U.S. are quiet this morning with very little in the way of economic data.  However, China reported May monthly foreign exchange reserves, increasing $24 billion to approximately $3.05 trillion.  Recent new methodology to stab…

  • The tone this morning remains cautious
    Tuesday, June 6, 2017 - 08:44 EDT

    The tone this morning remains cautious ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting and some uncertainty around whether U.K. Prime Minister May will garner enough support for a majority government.  Following yesterday’s announcement that Saud…

  • A quiet start to the week in-regards to economic data releases
    Monday, June 5, 2017 - 09:02 EDT

    A quiet start to the week in-regards to economic data releases, with oil continuing to show weakness despite several Arab countries cutting diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar for their alleged support of terrorist groups in the region.  Thi…

  • U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at +183k, lower than expectations
    Friday, June 2, 2017 - 09:23 EDT

    U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at +138k, lower than expectations of +183k.  Two month revisions were also down 66k, with private payrolls coming in under expectations.  Mildly positive was the pace of wage growth, as average hourly earnings…

  • Oil prices continue to be under pressure
    Thursday, June 1, 2017 - 11:00 EDT

    Oil prices continue to be under pressure following the underwhelming OPEC deal to cut supply for an additional nine months.  Libya’s largest oil field also increased production to the highest levels since 2014, further pushing oil prices even…

  • Canadian Q1 GDP came in at 3.7%, below expectations of 4.2%
    Wednesday, May 31, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    Canadian Q1 GDP came in at 3.7%, below expectations of 4.2%.  Last quarter’s GDP number was revised higher by 0.1% to +2.7%.  Household consumption rose at the fastest pace since 2010, increasing by 4.3% annualized, as improving job marke…

  • ECB President Draghi indicated that the euro-area recovery is well on its way
    Tuesday, May 30, 2017 - 09:06 EDT

    ECB President Draghi spoke yesterday and indicated that the euro-area recovery is well on its way.  However, he believes that key risks to the recovery are now weighted towards external factors, especially the “neo-protectionist stances that h…

  • San Francisco Fed President spoke in Singapore
    Monday, May 29, 2017 - 08:48 EDT

    San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke in Singapore and commented on the future of the Fed’s balance sheet.  He believes that the unwinding process will start with baby steps later this year with the size of the overall balance sheet to be…

  • WTI crude prices continue to sell off this morning
    Friday, May 26, 2017 - 09:05 EDT

    WTI crude prices continue to sell off this morning, currently sitting at $48.61/barrel after closing at $51.36/barrel on Wednesday.  This follows yesterday’s OPEC announcement to continue oil supply reductions for an additional nine months.&nb…

  • The Bank of Canada, as expected, decided to keep rates unchanged
    Thursday, May 25, 2017 - 08:40 EDT

    The Bank of Canada, as expected, decided to keep rates unchanged yesterday with a generally neutral tone to the statement.  There were comments that the CPI is generally in line with the Bank’s projections, which is temporarily lower due to lo…

  • Moody's downgraded China's sovereign credit rating
    Wednesday, May 24, 2017 - 09:30 EDT

    Last night, Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating one notch from Aa3 to A1 noting the increase in leverage and debt burdens will put pressure on state finances.  The rating agency also added that China would be challenged to mai…

  • The Trump administration will release its 2018 budget proposal today
    Tuesday, May 23, 2017 - 08:51 EDT

    The Trump administration will release its 2018 budget proposal today.  Proposed budget details were posted on the Health and Human Services Department website titled “Putting America’s Health First”, which was later removed.  If the a…

  • Market volatility continues to ease this morning
    Friday, May 19, 2017 - 10:18 EDT

    Market volatility continues to ease this morning, with the VIX index at 13.49 after hitting an intraday high yesterday of 16.  President Trump spoke yesterday evening and answered questions around any contact with Russia and imposing his will to…

  • The VIX Index spiked yesterday from 10.65 to 15.59
    Thursday, May 18, 2017 - 08:38 EDT

    The VIX Index spiked yesterday from 10.65 to 15.59, as volatility increased after news surfaced that the Trump administration may have had undisclosed contact with Russia.  There was also speculation that President Trump ordered FBI Director Com…

  • Eurozone CPI for April came in at 0.4%
    Wednesday, May 17, 2017 - 08:45 EDT

    Eurozone CPI for April came in at 0.4%, which was in line with expectations, with year over year inflation tracking 1.9%.  Categories such as recreation/culture boosted inflation from the Easter holiday as well as electricity and gas prices rela…

  • First quarter GDP for the Eurozone came in as expected at 0.5%
    Tuesday, May 16, 2017 - 08:21 EDT

    First quarter GDP for the Eurozone came in as expected at +0.5%, with year over year GDP tracking at +1.7%.  Although the Eurozone as a whole showed growth, it masks a somewhat uneven growth path across the region.  Spain, for instance, sho…

  • WTI crude prices are up over 3% this morning
    Monday, May 15, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    WTI crude prices are up over 3% this morning after both Saudi Arabia and Russia said that they were both in favour of extending the oil output cuts until the first quarter of 2018.  The ultimate goal is to reduce global inventories to the five y…

  • U.S. retail sales for April increased by 0.4%
    Friday, May 12, 2017 - 09:35 EDT

    U.S. retail sales for April increased by 0.4% against expectations of +0.6%, although last month’s number was revised higher to +0.1% from -0.2%.  Purchases of autos increased by 0.7% while electronics and appliance sales increased 1.3% in the…

  • New York President Dudley spoke this morning
    Thursday, May 11, 2017 - 09:36 EDT

    New York Fed President Dudley spoke this morning stating that the Fed will most likely start to shrink its balance sheet later this year or next.  He noted that the U.S. is pretty close to full employment and inflation is slightly below their ta…

  • Oil prices are higher this morning
    Wednesday, May 10, 2017 - 09:31 EDT

    Oil prices are higher this morning at $46.32/barrel as industry reports show that U.S. supplies dropped for a fifth week, helping to reduce the inventory overhang.  Inventories fell by 5.79 million barrels last week and expectations are for an a…

  • Today is election day in BC
    Tuesday, May 9, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    Today is election day in BC with many energy and pipeline investors closely watching the developments between the Liberals and NDP party.  Polls show that it will be a close race with 39% and 40% of votes going to each party, respectively. …

  • European equity markets are weaker this morning
    Monday, May 8, 2017 - 08:54 EDT

    Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election on Sunday, beating far right candidate Le Pen.  Macron won 66% of votes, with his primary platform to strengthen free market policies and improve ties with the European Union.  However, e…

  • WTI crude prices continue to be weaker this morning
    Friday, May 5, 2017 - 09:24 EDT

    Canadian employment grew by 3.2k in April, which was below expectations of +10k.  Although below expectations, Canadian employment is still averaging approximately 21k new jobs per month this year.  Details in the employment numbers were a…

  • The FOMC left the Fed funds traget rate unchanged
    Thursday, May 4, 2017 - 11:37 EDT

    The FOMC left the Fed funds target rate unchanged yesterday at 0.75-1%.  A statement did acknowledge that growth in the first quarter had slowed, but most of those factors are likely to be transitory.  However, the fundamentals underpinning…

  • The FOMC will release its policy announcement later this afternoon
    Wednesday, May 3, 2017 - 12:25 EDT

    The FOMC will release its policy announcement later this afternoon, although expectations are for rates to remain unchanged.  The tone of the statement, as well as changes to reframe guidance for additional rate increases this year, will be impo…

  • Today is the start of the two day FOMC meetings before tomorrow's announcement
    Tuesday, May 2, 2017 - 08:57 EDT

    Today is the start of the two day FOMC meetings before tomorrow’s announcement.  With the most recent softness in data, including last Friday’s Q1 GDP number, it is expected that the Fed will hold rates unchanged this meeting.  Markets…

  • A tentative $1.1 trillion bill is agreed to keep the U.S. government open
    Monday, May 1, 2017 - 10:22 EDT

    Last night, the U.S. house and senate reached a tentative agreement on a $1.1 trillion bill to keep the government open until the end of September.  With a bipartisan agreement, markets are hoping that negotiations will not stall where there wou…

  • Canadian GDP for February came in flat
    Friday, April 28, 2017 - 09:43 EDT

    Canadian GDP for February came in flat, just below expectations of +0.1%, with year over year growth tracking at 2.5%.  The Canadian economy stalled in the month as manufacturing and production in the goods sectors shrank, offset by real estate…

  • President Trump yesterday announced changes to corporate taxes
    Thursday, April 27, 2017 - 09:11 EDT

    President Trump yesterday announced changes to corporate taxes by cutting the current rate of 35% to 15%.  It is yet to be seen whether the new policy change will be revenue neutral, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expects economic growth from the…

  • Canadian retail sales were weaker than expected
    Wednesday, April 26, 2017 - 10:00 EDT

    Canadian retail sales were weaker than expected, with February data reporting a decrease of 0.6% versus a flat reading expected.  The prior month’s strong reading was increased 0.1% to 2.3%.  Sales related to motor vehicles, and purchases…

  • U.S. President Trump yesterday imposed a 20% tax on softwood lumber
    Tuesday, April 25, 2017 - 08:35 EDT

    U.S. President Trump yesterday imposed a 20% tax on softwood lumber for all softwood coming into the U.S. from Canada.  This is the first political action from President Trump that substantially affects trade between the two countries and potent…

  • Equity markets in Europe are rallying
    Monday, April 24, 2017 - 10:14 EDT

    Equity markets in Europe are rallying after the centrist Emmanuel Macron and nationalist Le Pen garnered the largest number of votes in the first round of the French presidential election.  The France CAC 40 is up 4.5% with other periphery equit…

  • Canadian CPI for March came in lower than expected
    Friday, April 21, 2017 - 09:34 EDT

    Canadian CPI for March came in lower than expected at 1.6% y/y, instead of consensus of 1.8%.  Inflation declined in the month from decreases in food and clothing prices.  This is the third straight month of food price declines as gasoline…

  • Equity markets are mixed this morning
    Thursday, April 20, 2017 - 09:21 EDT

    Equity markets in Europe are mixed this morning, as there is uncertainty for investors surrounding the French election. The Ontario budget will be released today, and many will look towards additional measures aimed at cooling Toronto’s housing ma…

  • All three levels of government met yesterday to discuss Toronto's housing market
    Wednesday, April 19, 2017 - 09:04 EDT

    After all three levels of government met yesterday to discuss Toronto’s housing market, they have agreed in the short-term to refrain from introducing new measures for buyers.  Finance Minister Morneau noted that any additional measures in the…

  • U.K. Prime Minister announced a snap election this morning
    Tuesday, April 18, 2017 - 09:06 EDT

    U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May announced this morning that she would seek a snap U.K. election on June 8 in order to strengthen her ability to negotiate Brexit.  An election in the U.K. is not due until 2020, although polls show that she curren…

  • Ten year U.S. Treasury yields are at a five month low at 2.21%
    Monday, April 17, 2017 - 09:17 EDT

    The U.S. reported both retail sales and CPI on Friday, with indications that Q1 GDP may come in lower than initially expected.  Retail sales declined for two straight months, with March figures falling by 0.2% and last month’s reading revised…

  • BoC's growth projections for 2017 were revised higher
    Thursday, April 13, 2017 - 09:16 EDT

    As expected, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged yesterday.  Although the statement was much more balanced and acknowledged the most recent improvement in economic data, the Bank believes that “there is still considerable uncertainty about…

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