Daily Market Commentary

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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • Canadian headline inflation for July came in at expectations at 1.2%
    Friday, August 18, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Canadian headline inflation for July came in at expectations at 1.2%.  CPI ticked higher by 0.2% from the previous month as a result of higher gasoline prices in addition to rising hotel accommodations and restaurant prices.  Electricity de…

  • The FOMC minutes from the July meeting were released yesterday
    Thursday, August 17, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    The FOMC minutes from the July meeting were released yesterday, where the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged.  For the most part, new information was largely absent as Fed officials debated the likelihood that inflation will increase back to t…

  • Second quarter GDP out of Europe continues to be positive
    Wednesday, August 16, 2017 - 09:22 EDT

    Today officially marks the first day of NAFTA negotiations between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico as the U.S. will attempt to reduce the trade deficit against the other two countries.  Second quarter GDP out of Europe continues to be positive, incr…

  • Yesterday, Foreign Affairs minister Chrystia Freeland spoke about Canada’s core objectives in the upcoming NAFTA negotiations...
    Tuesday, August 15, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    Yesterday, Foreign Affairs minister Chrystia Freeland spoke about Canada’s core objectives in the upcoming NAFTA negotiations that begin tomorrow.  She indicated that Canada won’t accept just any deal, with hopes that the three countries can…

  • Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea continued to be in the headlines...
    Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:04 EDT

    Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea continued to be in the headlines on Friday, keeping some volatility in the markets.  The VIX index was just under 10 to start last week, and currently stands at 13 after rising to a high of 16 at the mid…

  • U.S. inflation edged up marginally in July
    Friday, August 11, 2017 - 09:20 EDT

    U.S. inflation edged up marginally in July by 0.1% to 1.7% y/y, although below expectations of 1.8%.  CPI ex food and energy y/y continues to remain stable, similarly to last month at 1.7%.  Inflation continues to remain below the Federal R…

  • The U.S. producer price index fell
    Thursday, August 10, 2017 - 08:54 EDT

    The U.S. producer price index for July fell by 0.1% m/m against expectations of a +0.1% increase.  The unexpected drop in wholesale prices was the first decline in almost a year, potentially indication that inflation will remain benign.  Ex…

  • Canadian housing starts for July increased
    Wednesday, August 9, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Economic data releases are again quieter in North America this morning.  However, Canadian housing starts for July increased from the prior month up 10k to 222.3k and higher than expectations of 205k.  Most of the new housing starts were in…

  • WTI crude prices are holding above $49/barrel this morning
    Tuesday, August 8, 2017 - 08:57 EDT

    The economic calendar in North America is light to start the week following the Civic long holiday weekend in Canada.  In Germany, the trade surplus in June continued to widen to a ten month high that currently stands at $22.3 billion.  The…

  • Canadian employment continues to show positive growth
    Friday, August 4, 2017 - 09:05 EDT

    Canadian employment continues to show positive growth this month, adding 10.9k jobs in July versus expectations of +12.5k.  The details were positive with full time employment increasing by 35.1k and part-time jobs decreasing by 24.3k.  The…

  • The Bank of England released its monetary policy statement
    Thursday, August 3, 2017 - 09:00 EDT

    The Bank of England released its monetary policy statement this morning leaving its key interest rate unchanged.  The central bank also maintained bond purchases steady at £435 billion in government bonds and £10 billion in corporate bonds.&nb…

  • U.S. ADP employment for July increased by 178k
    Wednesday, August 2, 2017 - 09:24 EDT

    The economic calendar is relatively light this morning with no releases out of Canada.  In the U.S., ADP employment for July increased by 178k, just below expectations of 190k.  Although ADP is not always the best gauge for non-farm payroll…

  • U.S. personal incomes came in flat for June
    Tuesday, August 1, 2017 - 09:06 EDT

    U.S. personal incomes came in flat for June just below expectations of a +0.4% increase.  The prior month’s personal income increase was also revised down by 0.1% to 0.3%.  Personal spending also stalled only increasing at 0.1% for the mo…

  • Gov. of Canada 10-year yields continue to move higher
    Monday, July 31, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    Government of Canada 10-year yields continued to move higher on Friday following very strong GDP growth data for the month of May.  Ten yield Canada yields have now moved above the 2% mark and currently sit at the highest levels in approximately…

  • Canadian GDP came in at 4.6% y/y in May
    Friday, July 28, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    Canadian GDP came in at 4.6% y/y in May, which was higher than expectations of 4.1%.  The data beat forecasts as a result of a rebound in crude oil production over the month, making this GDP number the fastest 12 month pace since 2000.  Oil…

  • U.S. durable goods for June came in at 6.5%, much higher than expectations
    Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 09:27 EDT

    The FOMC announcement yesterday was relatively uneventful as the Fed Funds Rate was left unchanged, which was widely expected.  For the most part, the statement was left mostly intact from the June statement.  The committee once again ackno…

  • The FOMC releases its monetary policy statement this afternoon
    Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 08:57 EDT

    The FOMC releases its monetary policy statement this afternoon, although the expectation is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged.  However, investors will be interested if there will be any details on whether the central bank will begin its t…

  • The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen
    Tuesday, July 25, 2017 - 08:26 EDT

    The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen amid expectations that the Bank of Canada will further tighten monetary policy, while the Canadian economy shows signs of additional strength.  The CAD currency moved above $0.80 against the U.S. dolla…

  • Investors will be watching for the FOMC policy announcement...
    Monday, July 24, 2017 - 09:25 EDT

    Investors will be watching for the FOMC policy announcement this coming Wednesday.  Although the probability that the Fed will hike rates this meeting is next to nil, what is important will be any additional details on the steps towards balance…

  • Canadian headline inflation continues to run softer in Canada...
    Friday, July 21, 2017 - 10:11 EDT

    Canadian headline inflation continues to run softer in Canada, posting an increase of 1% year-over-year for June, just below expectations of +1.1%.  Inflation tracked lower from the previous reading of 1.3%, with June’s number the slowest sinc…

  • The European Central Bank left rates unchanged this morning...
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 - 10:47 EDT

    The European Central Bank left rates unchanged this morning, and continues to maintain its quantitative easing program at 60 billion euros every month.  The statement maintained some dovish commentary, indicating that quantitative easing can be…

  • Morgan Stanley is the last of the big five banks in the U.S. to report...
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 - 09:26 EDT

    The Bank of Japan begins its monetary policy meeting and outlook report today and tomorrow.  Inflation in Japan still remains low, rising 0.4% year-over-year for the last reported data in May.  Previously, Governor Kuroda indicated that it…

  • The Canadian dollar continues to rally...
    Tuesday, July 18, 2017 - 09:39 EDT

    The Canadian dollar continues to rally against the U.S. dollar following last week’s increase in the overnight rate by the Bank of Canada, along with reports this morning that two more Republican senators announced that they will vote against Presi…

  • China GDP was released overnight, coming in at 6.9%...
    Monday, July 17, 2017 - 10:08 EDT

    China GDP was released overnight, coming in at 6.9% for the second quarter, above expectations of 6.8%.  Growth was driven by industrial production, business investment, and retail sales.  The Chinese consumer continued to spend, as sales r…

  • U.S. inflation came in slightly below expectations
    Friday, July 14, 2017 - 09:25 EDT

    U.S. inflation came in slightly below expectations at 1.6% y/y versus consensus of 1.7%, while core inflation continues to track below the Fed’s target at 1.7%.  Drops in airfares, vehicles sales and wireless phone services contributed to the…

  • The BoC increased the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points
    Thursday, July 13, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    The Bank of Canada increased the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points yesterday to 0.75%.  The Bank acknowledged the recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary.  The statement also noted that the Canadian economy has been rob…

  • The BoC will release its policy statement this morning
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 - 09:10 EDT

    The Bank of Canada will release its policy statement this morning, with a 90% probability of a 25bps rate hike.  With the market already pricing in that the Bank will raise rates this meeting, the tone of today’s statement will be important.&n…

  • Oil prices continue to be pressured
    Tuesday, July 11, 2017 - 09:15 EDT

    Oil prices continue to be pressured and have been unable to sustain levels above $45/barrel.  Saudi Arabia has told OPEC that oil drilling has exceeded its production limit for the first time since the agreement to cut global oil supply.  I…

  • All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada this coming Wednesday
    Monday, July 10, 2017 - 08:43 EDT

    All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada this coming Wednesday as the monetary policy release is expected to announce a 25bps rate increase in the Overnight Rate.  OIS implied probabilities currently have a 93% chance that the Bank will raise rate…

  • Canadian employment numbers continue to soar
    Friday, July 7, 2017 - 09:06 EDT

    Canadian employment numbers continue to soar adding 45.3k jobs in June, higher than expectations of +10k.  The Majority of the jobs added were part-time at +37k, while full-time employment increased +8k.  On average, the Canadian economy ha…

  • Rates in Canada continue to move higher this morning
    Thursday, July 6, 2017 - 08:39 EDT

    The FOMC minutes released yesterday gave evidence that there is no strong conviction towards when the normalization of the balance sheet will occur.  Several Fed members expect the start of the reduction of the balance sheet to begin in a “cou…

  • The FOMC will release its minutes from the June meeting
    Wednesday, July 5, 2017 - 08:56 EDT

    Today, the FOMC will release its minutes from the June meeting, where the central bank raised the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps and provided details on how they plan to normalize the balance sheet.  Precise timing for the potential reduction of the ba…

  • Governor Poloz continues to gives indications of a potential rate hike
    Tuesday, July 4, 2017 - 10:29 EDT

    Governor Poloz continues to give indications of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Canada on July 12.  He reiterated Deputy Governor Wilkins’ comparison of a car driving to a red light and easing up on the accelerator instead of waiting for…

  • The Canadian dollar continues to rally
    Friday, June 30, 2017 - 09:03 EDT

    The Canadian dollar continues to rally following increased expectations that the Bank of Canada will raise rates this upcoming July meeting.  The CAD/USD exchange sits just above $0.77, after falling below $0.73 back in May.  Also pushing t…

  • Central bank commentary continues to drive yields higher
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 - 09:02 EDT

    Central bank commentary continues to drive yields higher this morning, following hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England and the ECB.  BOC Deputy Governor Patterson delivered a speech in Calgary and echoed a similar tone from o…

  • Rates in Canada continue to move higher this morning
    Wednesday, June 28, 2017 - 09:42 EDT

    Rates in Canada continue to move higher this morning following BOC Governor Poloz’s comments.  He again reiterated that the 2015 rate cuts have done their job, and the Bank is now reaching a pivotal juncture towards a new interest rate decisio…

  • President Draghi called for continued Euro-area stimulus
    Tuesday, June 27, 2017 - 09:16 EDT

    During the ECB’s Forum on Central Banking, President Draghi called for continued Euro-area stimulus, noting that support is still necessary even though economic growth has improved.  Although reflationary forces are now pointing to a strengthe…

  • The U.K. conservative party has struck a deal
    Monday, June 26, 2017 - 09:00 EDT

    The U.K. conservative party has struck a deal with the Northern Ireland’s DUP, who will support Prime Minister May’s minority government.  Discussions between the two parties have focused on providing monetary support for Northern Ireland an…

  • Canadian CPI continues to be weak, posting an increase of 1.3% in May...
    Friday, June 23, 2017 - 10:02 EDT

    Canadian CPI continues to be weak, posting an increase of 1.3% in May, against expectations of +1.5%.  Gasoline prices fell by 4% in May, although year over year gas prices are still up by 6.8%.  Food inflation was mildly higher at +0.6% fo…

  • Prime Minister May will meet with other European Union leaders today...
    Thursday, June 22, 2017 - 10:55 EDT

    Prime Minister May will meet with other European Union leaders today in Brussels, where she will walk through the principles in her approach towards Brexit.  The details of the plan will be published next Monday and allow the British parliament…

  • Dallas Fed President Kaplan spoke yesterday
    Wednesday, June 21, 2017 - 09:15 EDT

    Dallas Fed President Kaplan spoke yesterday and noted that the muted 10yr Treasury yield suggests expectations of sluggish economic growth.  He was glad that the Fed increased rates last meeting but is willing to be patient moving forward. …

  • Today marks the second day of Brexit
    Tuesday, June 20, 2017 - 08:43 EDT

    Today marks the second day of Brexit with an agreement from both the U.K. and the EU that the agenda would first begin with the exit bill followed by the rights of EU and British citizens living outside their home region.  The Bank of England Go…

  • Brexit negotiations officially begin this morning
    Monday, June 19, 2017 - 08:27 EDT

    Brexit negotiations officially begin this morning in Brussels, a year after the vote for the U.K. to leave the Eurozone.  Although very preliminary, Theresa May will lay out the legislative process with the U.K. parliament in two days’ time, f…

  • Overseas buyers purchased $10.6bil of Canadian securities
    Friday, June 16, 2017 - 09:39 EDT

    Overseas buyers purchased $10.6bil of Canadian securities in April, down from the prior month purchases of $15.1bil.  The breakdown included buying of just under $13bil of bonds, offset by selling of $1.3bil of equities and $1.1bil of money mark…

  • As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25bps yesterday
    Thursday, June 15, 2017 - 08:35 EDT

    As expected, the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by 25bps yesterday, with the target range at 1%-1.25%.  The statement did address that core inflation continues to run below their 2% target, but Yellen dismissed the recent softness in inflation as…

  • 94.8% probability that the Fed will raise rates today
    Wednesday, June 14, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    Bank of Canada Governor Poloz spoke yesterday but did not reiterate deputy governor Wilkins’ comments from the prior day.  However, he did not provide any reason for investors to think differently either.  He indicated there are still two…

  • The Bank of Canada senior deputy Wilkins spoke yesterday
    Tuesday, June 13, 2017 - 08:51 EDT

    The Bank of Canada senior deputy Wilkins spoke yesterday and brought a much more hawkish tone to the bank.  In her speech, she noted that as growth continues to broaden further, the Bank will begin assessing whether the current monetary stimulus…

  • All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week
    Monday, June 12, 2017 - 08:32 EDT

    All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week, as the FOMC will release its policy statement on Wednesday.  The probability of the Fed raising rates this meeting currently stands just below 95%, as several Fed officials over the past mo…

  • Canadian employment surged in May
    Friday, June 9, 2017 - 09:40 EDT

    U.K. Prime Minister May was unable to garner enough seats in yesterday’s election to secure a majority government.  Her Conservative party still holds the largest number of seats at 318, just short of 326 seats required for a house majority.&n…

  • Voters in Britain head to the Polls today
    Thursday, June 8, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    Voters in Britain head to the polls today, after Prime Minister May called a snap election to consolidate power and form a majority government.  The latest poll by Ipsos indicated that the Conservatives would win 44% of the votes, just short of…

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